Amongst those wishing to see the survival of the United Kingdom, the assumption is that the SNP’s anticipated JCB bucket-scoop of Scottish seats in the UK General Election in May can only signal an accelerated end to the union.
That could well be the case. An unstoppable tidal surge in the SNP’s favour will not return as strongly again if it sweeps back out to sea unsatisfied. If the latest membership, given as 105,000, enact a biblical flood upon the political map of Scotland, the SNP Leadership will have no choice but to bow to their will to see Scotland independent in the very short term. There will never again be the certainty that now exists.
But, ironically, in sweeping far inland – and to the south, this storm surge will deposit there what may well be the agents of the frustration of its ambition.
Think about it.
There are and will be until 2016, 64 SNP MSPs at Holyrood, under First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and Deputy First Minister, Finance Secretary John Swinney.
There are likely to be upwards of 50 SNP MPs at Westminster on 8th May, under Alex Salmond. Whether or not he is the nominal leader, he is the legendary hero of the newbie MPs. The House and the Westminster media pack are only going to be interested in the former First Minister – who will expand in authority in the warmth of such a spotlight.
If Angus Robertson is, as expected, to continue as the formal group leader – expect ructions as Robertson is nobody’s patsy.
But for as long as Salmond is MP for Gordon – for five years anyway – this is going to be the political soap opera of the parliamentary term.
In the stratosphere
As – probably – the third largest party in the UK at the expense of the Liberal Democrats – the SNP will suddenly rocket in funding, rights, entitlements, position, influence and profile.
The Westminster operations of political parties are funded from what is called ‘Short money’ – not short change but funding named after the former Leader of the House, Edward Short [Lord Glenamara], who created the initiative.
Where the SNP, with its six MSPs, currently gets a little less than £190k per annum, as the third largest party with around 50 seats it would get something like £850k – a massive uplift. This would see the party very well found at Westminster, with a well resourced and well staffed parliamentary establishment.
Their new status would involve prestigious premises for their party whips, with the SNP Chief Whip one of the three who manage the business of the Commons – an influential role well beyond superficial bragging rights.
Then there would be a new visual prominence in the chamber:
- the SNP MPs would sit in front rows on the opposition benches;
- the party would have the right to an assured two Prime Ministers’ Questions a week.
And then comes all but total penetration of the business of the House of Commons.
Where they currently have a seat on only two parliamentary committees [the Scottish and the Treasury], with 50 or so MPs the SNP would be entitled to a seat on each of a swathe of these committees and the chair of some key ones.
The committees on which they would have seats would largely be of the party’s own choosing but not necessarily exclusively so. It can be anticipated that a separatist seat on the Intelligence and Security Committee would be highly contentious – which will make a seat on it an obvious target for the ‘rumbling up’ such a request would confer.
The biggest story in town
If there were, say, the bare 50 SNP MPs, 44 of these will be newbies – flush with new salaries, hugely substantial expenses designed to augment that salary, the subjects of star-spotting interest, interviews and cameras. They will be learning on the job [and will be under the discipline of the draconian new party rules for MPa agreed at the recent party conference].
They will not only be getting used simply to being elected representatives at the Mother of Parliaments in one of the sexiest cities of the world, they will have to gear up simultaneously to their roles on the welter of committees on which the SNP will have a seat – giving them influence in the House of Commons across the spectrum of its business.
They are going to experience a mighty learning curve – but the adrenaline will be fantastic. There will be mistakes, which will be all over the media – but each of these MPs will be part of the biggest story in town, the focus of attention, important, sprinkled with Saltire dust and cutting a swagger.
They will be living the time of their lives. Alex will be cock of the walk, announcing on impulse the policies that are no longer his responsibility, induced to irresponsibility by the respectful camaraderie of journalists and a glass or four of the pink stuff.
England will hate them – but will talk about them endlessly; and they will be doing everything Alex has promised: ‘rumbling up Westminster’.
Spotted the consequences?
The two thrones – Holywood and Westminster- will not be that dissimilar in size [for a year anyway]; but the greater adrenaline of the metropolis and the virtually instant access to each other of politicians and national media will dwarf the attention paid to goings-on at Holyrood.
The SNP activists who will have put 50 SNP MPs into Westminster will be proud of their achievement and delighted by the constant rattle of publicity. This will have been their score for the party and for Scotland and they will be avid observers of it in operation.
Holyrood will be far less interesting. There’s always more fun in making a stir in the biggest pond, in counting against the greatest competition. ‘Our own wee hill and glen’ twangs the heartstrings of the melancholic – but the glamour, buzz and static crackle of the biggest centre of power in these islands is something else altogether.
The problem of indy has always been the deliberate choice of the small world. Small may be beautiful but it is by nature parochial. It may be more rooted but it is less exciting. If this were not the case, why did Rangers not rock the third division?
Back at Holyrood, where the chamber, even when it is full, looks pretty empty; and where it’s full is still a much smaller audience, Scottish Labour is led by an intelligent young politician on placement; the Lib Dems by a traditional relief from indigestion; and the Scottish Conservatives by the ever-watchable Just William.
It has charm and interest but its not even the Championship.
Nicola’s stuck tutoring in the academy. She could stand for Westminster herself – in a by-election she has the party authority to bring about, leaving her deputy John Swinney to hold the fort in Holyrood.
But how would it look if the SNP themselves made Holyrood a branch office?
At Westminster, Alex is grandstanding daily. The troops have the fur made shiny by the prospect of power Ben Pimlott attributed to the delightedly shell shocked members of Harold Wilson’s first Labour government when Alex Douglas-Home fell. The media are all over them.
The pivotal moment
Then comes the manifesto for the Scottish election 2016.
Nicola now has additional imperatives to put the independence issue back on the agenda. She’s got to get the unexpected competition out of Westminster.
What do the 50 SNP MPs – the best known in the UK – feel about that? How will they respond to having the challenge and thrill of their lives snatched from them before they’ve fully grown into their new clothes? Do turkeys vote…?
Expect fundamental compromise, with no mention of independence in the 2016 SNP manifesto.
Expect a flush of reasons why it is very important for Scotland that the SNP grip on Westminster is retained.
Expect the sudden elevation of the imperative of constitutional reform for the UK, driven by the SNP contingent.
Expect federalism to become the dream outcome.
Expect the SNP’s historic achievement to be gaining virtual independence and saving the union.
It’s the psychology, stupid.